Members of the NextGen, or “Subsequent Technology”, are working out of time to win a grand slam. After the repeated success of the large three, youthful gamers had been tipped to beat them on the main degree, or a minimum of declare a significant, comparable to Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Taylor Fritz, Matteo Berrettini, Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev.
Solely two have been ready to do that. This isn’t meant to be essential of gamers who haven’t but gained a slam. The NextGen have achieved nice success within the ATP circuit whereas persevering with to encourage and entertain tens of millions of followers worldwide.
However for many of those gamers, based mostly on statistics, the possibility of profitable even only one slam is wanting ever extra unlikely.
Successful a Maiden Slam
Under are three tables with all first-time main winners since 2000 sorted by age, years after turning professional, and the full variety of grand slams gained.
| Title | First Grand Slam | Age |
|---|---|---|
| Rafael Nadal | 2005 Roland Garros | 19 |
| Leyton Hewitt | 2001 US Open | 19 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 2022 US Open | 19 |
| Novak Djokovic | 2008 Australian Open | 20 |
| Juan Martin del Potro | 2009 US Open | 20 |
| Marat Safin | 2000 US Open | 20 |
| Roger Federer | 2003 Wimbledon | 21 |
| Andy Roddick | 2003 US Open | 21 |
| Juan Carlos Ferrero | 2003 Roland Garros | 23 |
| Andy Murray | 2012 US Open | 25 |
| Gaston Gaudio | 2004 Roland Garros | 25 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 2021 US Open | 25 |
| Albert Costa | 2002 Roland Garros | 26 |
| Thomas Johansson | 2002 Australian Open | 26 |
| Marin Cilic | 2014 US Open | 26 |
| Dominic Thiem | 2020 US Open | 27 |
| Stan Wawrinka | 2014 Australian Open | 28 |
| Goran Ivanisevic | 2001 Wimbledon | 29 |
Imply common = 23.28
| Title | First Grand Slam | Years After Turning Professional |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Hewitt | 2001 US Open | 3 |
| Marat Safin | 2000 US Open | 3 |
| Andy Roddick | 2003 US Open | 3 |
| Rafael Nadal | 2005 Roland Garros | 4 |
| Juan Martin del Potro | 2009 US Open | 4 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 2022 US Open | 5 |
| Novak Djokovic | 2008 Australian Open | 5 |
| Roger Federer | 2003 Wimbledon | 5 |
| Juan Carlos Ferrero | 2003 Roland Garros | 5 |
| Andy Murray | 2012 US Open | 7 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 2021 US Open | 7 |
| Gaston Gaudio | 2004 Roland Garros | 8 |
| Thomas Johansson | 2002 Australian Open | 8 |
| Albert Costa | 2002 Roland Garros | 9 |
| Marin Cilic | 2014 US Open | 9 |
| Dominic Thiem | 2020 US Open | 9 |
| Stan Wawrinka | 2014 Australian Open | 12 |
| Goran Ivanisevic | 2001 Wimbledon | 13 |
Imply Common: 6.61
| Title | First Grand Slam | Years After Turning Professional |
|---|---|---|
| Leyton Hewitt | 2001 US Open | 3 |
| Marat Safin | 2000 US Open | 3 |
| Andy Roddick | 2003 US Open | 3 |
| Rafael Nadal | 2005 Roland Garros | 4 |
| Juan Martin del Potro | 2009 US Open | 4 |
| Carlos Alcaraz | 2022 US Open | 5 |
| Novak Djokovic | 2008 Australian Open | 5 |
| Roger Federer | 2003 Wimbledon | 5 |
| Juan Carlos Ferrero | 2003 Roland Garros | 5 |
| Andy Murray | 2012 US Open | 7 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 2021 US Open | 7 |
| Gaston Gaudio | 2004 Roland Garros | 8 |
| Thomas Johansson | 2002 Australian Open | 8 |
| Albert Costa | 2002 Roland Garros | 9 |
| Marin Cilic | 2014 US Open | 9 |
| Dominic Thiem | 2020 US Open | 9 |
| Stan Wawrinka | 2014 Australian Open | 12 |
| Goran Ivanisevic | 2001 Wimbledon | 13 |
The very first thing that struck me was the variety of gamers who gained their first main within the first a part of their careers.
With a complete knowledge set of 18 entries, 12/18 or 66.67% had been 25 or youthful after they gained their preliminary grand slam.
The second factor I seen was how vital enjoying over 9 years {of professional} tennis was, with simply an 11.11% probability of profitable a slam. Thirdly, outstanding success on the main degree has solely been achieved by gamers profitable their first grand slam at 21 years outdated or youthful and 5 years or much less after turning professional (i.e. Federer, Nadal and Djokovic).
There are two limitations when drawing conclusions from the information above. The primary is that the information set is partial, taking info from 2000 onwards. A broader supply base may present extra dependable outcomes to look at the progress (or lack thereof) from the NextGen.
Nonetheless, additionally it is important to match gamers throughout time who all have an primarily “fashionable” tennis fashion. I’d argue that by 2000, the fashionable baseline recreation is firmly established and is comparable sufficient, together with the evolution of rackets, to the enjoying kinds and tools of as we speak and the close to future.
The second limitation is that I’m assuming the previous is a dependable indicator of the longer term. That’s as a result of gamers had been extra prone to win their first grand slam at a particular age vary, and time after turning professional, the identical vary and time will apply now.
It’s hypothetically doable that traits within the knowledge above may very well be radically altered within the subsequent 23 years, with perhaps older and older winners of grand slams, with extra time after turning professional turning into extra widespread. However, for causes explored later, that is unlikely.
How does every of the NextGen Examine?
Medvedev and Thiem already seem on our lists above, so we are able to rely them out, although they each function within the backside half of the information for age and time after turning professional. Broadly talking, the older you’re and the extra time you’ve performed on the tour (accounting for a minimal quantity {of professional} expertise), the much less doubtless you’re to win your first grand slam.
There are a number of causes for this. Confidence can wain as soon as gamers have appeared in grand slams a number of instances however by no means featured in or gained a ultimate match. They could begin to doubt their talents to be Slam worthy or have the psychological toughness to win the match.
Over time, an absence of grand slam success and time spent as a professional with out huge wins may translate right into a psychological block, particularly in the event you’ve been touted as a future winner however didn’t ship on expectations.
Take the 2020 US Open ultimate, the place a tense Zverev misplaced regardless of being two units up. He made 65 unforced errors and 15 double faults within the match in opposition to Thiem. Zverev additionally lead the match’s double faults with a colossal 64.
Declining physicality over time additionally performs an element. Good footwork and footspeed are wanted to succeed in balls and switch sufficient vitality into photographs. Older gamers naturally expertise stiffness, pains and accidents, which may hamper efficiency or finish their careers completely. With the best-of-five set format, agile motion is important to endure a collection of doubtless gruelling matches.
The older you’re, having by no means gained a grand slam, the larger probability your tennis profession has already peaked round perhaps a clutch of different minor titles however by no means having success on the main degree. A participant can have had the flexibility to win a giant title, however as soon as misplaced it, is unable to regain it.
One-slam wonders like Cilic, del Potro and Roddick present that some gamers are solely given a small opening of their careers, and in the event that they fail to translate that probability into victory, it may be misplaced eternally.
Lastly, as extra time passes and not using a main, the larger the possibility you by no means had the expertise anyway, and it was by no means going to occur. Different gamers had been capable of beat you on uncooked ability, psychological fortitude, and physicality.
| Title | Age | Years since turning professional |
|---|---|---|
| Alexander Zverev | 26 | 10 |
| Matteo Berrettini | 27 | 8 |
| Andrey Rublev | 25 | 9 |
| Taylor Fritz | 25 | 8 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 24 | 7 |
Primarily based on the primary two tables, Zverev and Berrettini are least prone to declare a significant.
- Zverev has a 33.33% probability based mostly on age and an 11.11% probability based mostly on time since turning professional.
- Berrettini has a 16.67% probability based mostly on age and a 38.89% based mostly on professional time.
- Rublev has a 50% probability based mostly on age and a 27.78% probability based mostly on professional time.
- Fritz has a 50% probability based mostly on age and a 38.89% probability based mostly on professional time.
- Tsitsipas has a 50% probability based mostly on age and a 50% probability based mostly on professional time and is probably to say a significant.
Different indicators help this concept of the Greek’s rapid prospects – Tsitsipas is the one member to look in multiple grand slam ultimate and has the best rating of 5.
Aside from Tsitsipas, the probability of the NextGen ever profitable a grand slam is minimal and reduces yearly.
It’s also uncertain that any of the remaining NextGen can win a slam and have vital success with a number of majors, as they’re far past the age vary and years since turning professional of the large three.
Apparently Alcaraz matches proper into that huge three vary, profitable his first grand slam on the identical age as Nadal and having the identical variety of years since turning professional as Djokovic and Federer.
Although younger Alcaraz could also be on the precipice of tennis greatness, the stats inform us that the NextGen’s window of alternative is closing quick.
Do you assume any of the remaining NextGen will win a slam? Who’s most realistically prone to win multiple main? Depart your feedback beneath.