One other week means one other heavy underdog getting tons of cash thrown its means. That is fascinating as a result of the canine appears to win when bettors throw some huge cash behind it. Simply this season, a lot of the evaluations I’ve written about have surrounded the 6-1 New York Giants. Large Blue has an unbelievable capacity to manage the tempo of play, dominate time of possession, but nonetheless handle large performs — an enormous motive for his or her success regardless of an apparent lack of expertise.
The G-Males have labored their means out of the underdog gap it appears. As a substitute, a brand new contender has joined the fray— the Carolina Panthers, who’re being quarterbacked by a former XFL MVP, P.J. Walker.
In response to OddsChecker US, 60 % of moneyline bets on the upcoming Panthers-Falcons recreation have gone in favor of Carolina, who would be the street crew on this contest.hat may truly be a bonus. The Panthers have gained their final two street matchups in opposition to Atlanta and inside this collection, the street crew has wound up successful every of the final 4 and 5 of the final six.
Moreover, it’s exhausting to cross up on the Carolina Panthers after Walker and firm simply dominated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21-3. That mentioned, the Falcons are 2-1 at house this 12 months with a win over the 49ers, so how dependable is the betting development actually?
The Soiled Birds run the ball on the second-highest fee within the NFL (60.6 %) — forward of solely the Chicago Bears (64 %). The Carolina Panthers have probably the greatest run defenses within the NFL, a minimum of by way of yards allowed per carry (4.1 yards allowed per rush — seventh in NFL). They’re additionally top-10 in defensive first down rush share (23.4 %), and truly lead the NFL in anticipated factors added by their dashing protection (22.17), based on Professional-Soccer-Reference.
After everything I just said, you’d probably think I’d be leaning heavily into Carolina’s favor as well, but I’m not. Why? Because San Francisco also has an elite run defense, and the Atlanta Falcons dominated the Niners.
Using the run game to open up the passing attack is what made Atlanta so dominant in that game. The Falcons weren’t very effective running the ball. Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier averaged less than four yards per carry. Sure, that’s pretty par for the course for any team playing against the 49ers, but unless you’re averaging close to five yards per carry, most teams tend to run the ball less as the game progresses. Not Atlanta. The Falcons ran the ball with either Huntley or Allgeier 31 times, with 14 of those carries coming in the first half before any normal team would start giving into game script. That doesn’t include runs by QB Marcus Mariota or Avery Williams either. That number would be way higher if that was the case.
In the passing game, Mariota went 13-for-14 through the air. We all know he isn’t the most accurate quarterback, but even he was able to dissect the 49ers defense. Was a lot of it due to great play design by head coach Arthur Smith? Probably. However, at least in the first half, most of Atlanta’s big pass plays didn’t come off play action or quick screen passes. They were just either good pre-snap reads, Atlanta receivers finding a hole in coverage, or Mariota stepping up and making a play with his legs. Sure, the touchdown to MyCole Pruitt was off play action, but in terms of the drive down the field almost all of these aerial plays were on basic dropbacks. Same goes for the Falcon’s second touchdown drive capped off with a Mariota rushing TD.
While Carolina’s offense looked somewhat potent last week, I’m not ready to call a team led by Walker, DJ Moore, and D’Onta Foreman better than San Francisco. Atlanta’s defense was able to handle a Christian McCaffrey-less 49ers team and shouldn’t have a more difficult time with a Run CMC-less Panthers team. There’s just no way I see the Panthers handling the Falcons as well as bettors seem to assume. Considering the San Franmanhandled the Panthers just a few weeks ago, I’m leaning heavily in Atlanta’s favor. Sure, Carolina has arguably a better quarterback now, but that won’t be enough to grant a win. Give me Atlanta minus-four.